Posts

Showing posts from March, 2024

Running order qualification stats since 2008

Image
See below the detailed qualification rates of each running order slot. 2, 3 & 11 all tie for "death slot" with 40%. Will one of them take the lone title after this year?  However, if we look at the splits, in the first semi final, 4 is the death slot, while it's 3 & 5 in the second one. Number 2 isn't doing too badly in it. Actually, in the random draw era, 5 & 11 (and to some extent 3 & 4) were actually the death slots, never qualifying in one of the semi finals. Aditionally, openers were cursed in the first semi final, and song 9 struggled in the second semi final. Curiously, 8 - 12 didn't do well at all in this particular semi final. On the contrary, number 2 actually had an amazing record before the new draw rules. Except 12, all slots qualified at least once last year. It's slowly declining after initially being a very good slot.  The difference between number 13 in both semi finals is also astonishing. It does A LOT better in the second...

Comparing the running order to my prediction

Let's start with the first semi final (predited slot): 1. Cyprus (1) 2. Serbia (7) 3. Lithuania (4) 4. Ireland (3) 5. Ukraine (2) 6. Poland (5) 7. Croatia (6) 8. Iceland (8) 9. Slovenia (14) 10. Finland (11) 11. Moldova (12) 12. Azerbaijan (9) 13. Australia (13) 14. Portugal (10) 15. Luxembourg (15) I got four countries spot on! Ireland and Lithuania are reversed, and I was one off for Poland - Croatia and Finland - Moldova. Slovenia and Portugal are almost reversed. Had I put Portugal 9th as I considered, they actually would be. And why did everyone convince me that Moldova and Azerbaijan will not be back-to-back? Excluding Sweden, they actually are! Poor Serbia, I thought they'd get a later slot after the last two years. Azerbaijan - Australia gives me an eyebleed. And I correctly predicted two of the automatic qualifiers to perform after song 4 and 8! And the second semi final: 1. Malta (8) 2. Albania (5) 3. Greece (2) 4. Switzerland (4) 5. Czechia (1) 6. Austria (3) 7. Denm...

Running order predictions for the semi finals

For the fun of it, I'll also predict where the Big 5 and Sweden will perform. Basic rules: Gender, tempo (if possible) & language variety (though there may be exceptions that will be explained) Special rules I implemented: - No reuse of the running order slot from the previous year (e.g. Croatia can't be put on 7 or Azerbaijan on 12) - No countries starting with the same letter are placed back-to-back (I just find it very aesthetically unpleasant.) Semi final 1 1. Cyprus: On one hand, it would be a way too obvious opener so I wouldn't be surprised to be wrong here. Besides, I've always been off with the opening songs lately. But on the other hand, who else could open? Poland maybe? I can't see anyone else being put 1st though. 2. Ukraine: We need to redeem number 2 and put an end to the death slot myth. Ukraine is a sure qualifier so might as well put them 2nd. It won't hurt their chances as they'll qualify from any slot. 3. Ireland: I'm not quite ...

Friday Fact of the Week #9

Only for the fifth time in Eurovision history does the host country open the grand final. The last time this happened was in 1970, 54 years ago! The last winner to perform first was more recent than that, 40 years ago, in 1984. Coincidentally, that country was Sweden.

My concerns regarding safety issues due to Istael's participation

Just to clarify: I separate politics from the contest. ALWAYS. Everyone should do the same. For several weeks now, I am worried about the safety concerns for this year's contest. It's not a secret that there have been several threats and attacks already, the latest of which happened yesterday. Up until the 7th March, I was actually convinced that Israel would eventually withdraw because the security issues would be too much to handle and it wouldn't be safe for them. Or that they'd avoid travelling to Malmö and instead perform remotely like Australia 2021. Then, a day later, I found an article stating that the security for the Israeli delegation has been increased. While I'm glad about it, in my opinion it's not enough as the other participants are also at risk. Who guarantees the safety of the other delegations and the audience? How do they want to prevent possible stage invasions or attacks on the artist? What about protests outside the arena that could turn v...

Friday Fact of the Week #8

The ESC actually produced a love story: The hosts of 2008, Željko Joksimovic and Jelena Jankovic, fell in love, got married and had three children. They have "met" before that. In 2006, Jelena was the spokesperson of the disqualified Serbia & Montenegro who gave 12 points to Bosnia & Herzegovina. Željko co-wrote the song and was therefore in the greenroom with the delegation. She started off by saying: "We didn't give you a song this year. But I promise that next year, we will give you the best one." And indeed: The now independent Serbia won the year later... which allowed them to host together.